Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 18.210075 20.756620 23.506621 26.694013 30.283617 34.198060 38.787107
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 14.299249 17.700291 21.658649 26.594027 32.570320 39.560007 48.341503
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 12.519027 16.331140 20.983244 27.055818 34.749185 44.145164 56.462441
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 11.030457 15.077277 20.227879 27.228893 36.457393 48.162098 64.082886
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 9.741994 13.872614 19.326614 27.005675 37.481431 51.207323 70.477795
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 8.853703 13.083658 18.857109 27.247285 39.050136 54.969565 77.956623
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 8.311886 12.702415 18.877310 28.110216 41.461271 59.941143 87.301505
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 7.513585 11.862249 18.158019 27.833635 42.199667 62.582922 93.490092
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 6.517238 10.626082 16.747251 26.412109 41.139006 62.546015 95.769027
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 6.175101 10.357508 16.746588 27.075605 43.174163 67.072170 104.915956
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 5.880972 10.133669 16.786770 27.785926 45.298502 71.815164 114.607730
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 5.423543 9.601482 16.295317 27.611586 46.015446 74.434126 121.163105
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 4.926196 8.969090 15.608455 27.094345 46.186628 76.268635 126.690623
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 4.578676 8.562536 15.260583 27.104412 47.203143 79.479427 134.565913
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 4.342095 8.326858 15.175686 27.536487 48.920919 83.875055 144.540617
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 4.085356 8.031328 14.962270 27.725262 50.226623 87.648160 153.667029
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 3.786222 7.630428 14.530589 27.493962 50.781772 90.181107 160.823108
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 3.585306 7.396270 14.377370 27.741110 52.172882 94.173443 170.621302
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 3.487813 7.352621 14.566898 28.618196 54.725258 100.269756 184.320635
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 3.243302 6.997808 14.148878 28.337092 55.156268 102.679539 191.677183
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 2.876055 6.363366 13.151705 26.891361 53.347663 101.019725 191.707757
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 2.789698 6.300359 13.256559 27.566156 55.536886 106.626286 205.056113
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 2.713048 6.251058 13.383537 28.288530 57.850019 112.557870 219.257797